Just 60 days in the past that the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while his coach scolded him for not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. As the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, Emery tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six matches, are somehow only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more shots and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa will encounter in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
