A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
